# Senior Manager Global Capacity and Operational Planning (Community Support)

**Company:** [Airbnb](https://hotfix.jobs/companies/airbnb)
**Location:** Remote
**Role:** Business Operations
**Salary:** $204k – $255k/yr
**Experience:** 12+ years
**Skills:** SQL, Python, Arima, Excel, Tableau, Time Series Analysis, Exponential Smoothing, Erlang, Queueing Theory, Anaplan, Nice, Verint, Aspect, Google Sheets
**Posted:** 2026-04-24

> Leads global demand forecasting, capacity planning, and analytics for Community Support operations, building statistical models and providing executive decision support. Requires 12+ years in forecasting/workforce analytics, 5+ years managing teams, and expertise in SQL/Python/stats.

## Job Description

## Responsibilities

### Demand Forecasting & Statistical Modeling
- Own short-term, mid-term, and long-term demand forecasting across all Global Operations teams and channels (phone, messaging, email, back-office etc.).
- Design, develop, and maintain statistically robust demand forecasting models using time series and machine learning techniques (e.g., exponential smoothing, **ARIMA**, regression-based models etc.).
- Perform trend, seasonality, and variance decomposition; detect structural breaks, outliers, and demand anomalies.
- Quantify forecast uncertainty through confidence intervals, error distributions, and bias analysis.
- Lead scenario modeling for peak demand periods, product launches, growth initiatives, and unplanned demand events.
- Continuously assess model performance using statistical accuracy metrics (**MAPE**, **RMSE**, **MAE**, bias etc).
- Establish model governance standards, including documentation, validation, back-testing, and post-mortem analysis.
- Research, prototype, and implement new forecasting and optimization techniques as business needs evolve.
- Perform scenario planning and sensitivity analysis to quantify trade-offs between service levels, cost, and utilization.

### Advanced Analytics
- In partnership with the Analytics and Data Engineering team, design and build scalable planning data pipelines, dashboards, and automate forecasting and capacity models to improve scalability, repeatability, and timeliness.
- Use **SQL** and **Python** to extract, transform, and analyze large-scale operational datasets to monitor forecast accuracy, capacity gaps, utilization, and operational risk.

### Decision Support & Stakeholder Communication
- Present forecast assumptions, methodologies, risks, trade-offs, and recommendations in clear, executive-ready formats and act as a trusted advisor to senior leadership and lead demand/capacity planning discussions in cross-functional forums.
- Align cross-functional stakeholders (Delivery, Product, Finance, HR, and others) to embed planning outputs into execution and operational decision-making.
- Identify and implement process improvements, automation, and best practices in the demand and capacity planning area to optimize cost while maintaining or improving customer experience and service-level outcomes.

### People Leadership
- Lead, mentor, and develop planning analysts in quantitative methods, statistical rigor, and coding best practices.
- Review and approve forecasting and capacity models for accuracy, scalability, and business relevance.
- Set clear goals, high performance expectations, and career development paths for the team.
- Foster a culture of data-driven decision-making, accountability, and continuous improvement.

## Requirements
- **12+ years** of experience in demand forecasting, capacity planning, workforce analytics, or applied analytics.
- **5+ years** of people management experience.
- Bachelor’s degree in Mathematics, Statistics, Operations Research, Engineering, Economics, Data Science, or a related quantitative field.
- Strong foundation in probability, statistics, and optimization.
- Hands-on experience building and validating forecasting models (time series analysis, exponential smoothing, **ARIMA**, regression, hypothesis testing) and capacity models (**Erlang**, queueing theory, service-level and utilization modeling).
- Strong understanding of contact center metrics (**AHT**, **ASA**, service level, shrinkage, occupancy**); experience supporting large-scale, multi-site, or global contact center environments preferred.
- Advanced analytical skills with strong proficiency in **Excel**, **Google Sheets**, **SQL**, **Python** and data visualization tools such as **Tableau**.
- Experience with **WFM** tools (e.g., **NICE**, **Verint**, **Aspect**) or planning platforms (e.g., **Anaplan**) preferred.
- Strong business acumen with the ability to balance cost efficiency and customer experience outcomes.
- Excellent communication, executive presentation, and stakeholder influence skills; ability to explain complex analytical concepts to non-technical audiences.
- Comfortable operating in fast-paced, ambiguous, and highly dynamic environments.

## Compensation
**Pay Range**: $204,000—$255,000 USD (base pay). Role may also be eligible for bonus, equity, benefits, and Employee Travel Credits.

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